The world of personal finance is often filled with buzzwords and strategies that seem to promise guaranteed stability and minimal risk, particularly when investing idle fundsA perennial topic on social media focuses specifically on how to effectively manage a surplus of one million yuan—investing it to ensure steady returns without exposing oneself to significant losses.
When individuals consult with financial advisors about this scenario, there's a high probability—estimated at 90%—that they will be recommended to invest through a method known as systematic investment plan (SIP) or regular investment in mutual fundsThe rationale behind this strategy is typically centered around the unpredictable nature of the market; advisors believe that by employing SIP, investors can alleviate concerns about timing their investments, thus distributing costs over time and mitigating the impact of market fluctuations on their overall returns.
This concept of regular contributions can be particularly attractiveIt aligns perfectly with the fantasies many investors hold about investment: no need to delve into intricate market analyses, no anxiety about determining the right moments to buy or sell—just commit to investing a regular amount on a set schedule and benefit from steady growthIt seems simple, actionable, and most importantly, secure.
However, when analyzing data pertaining to funds over the past several years, a notable disparity emerges between the theoretical benefits of systematic investments and their actual performance compared to lump-sum investments.
The question then looms: What should one do with idle funds?
For those fortunate enough to have a million yuan at their disposal, the inclination to start a systematic investment strategy warrants careful contemplationQuestions arise: How much should be invested each month? Can one sustain the investment over the necessary duration? For instance, if an investor decides to contribute 20,000 yuan monthly, it will take nearly 50 months—over four years—to complete their investment plan
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This prolonged timeline presents a considerable test of the investor's resolveDuring the course of these investments, market volatility is inevitableIf there are downturns, panic can overshadow rational decision-making, causing the investor to waver and question their commitment to follow through.
Moreover, there is another pivotal consideration: how should the remaining unutilized funds be managed? Options like fixed deposits offer low liquidity, while investing in stocks carries a heightened risk of capital lossA flexible option such as money market funds emerges as one of the few viable choices that balances liquidity with stable returns.
Are the projected returns as promising as they sound?
Many promotional materials touting systematic investment plans illustrate a scenario where an investor purchases a mutual fund at an initial net asset value (NAV) of 1 yuan, which then plummets over the following months before returning to the original priceIn this example, should one invest a lump sum of 5,000 yuan in this fund upfront, they would end up with 5,000 units of the fund, later selling it at the return value without incurring a loss—neither winning nor losingHowever, if the same investor had chosen to commit 1,000 yuan monthly over the same six-month period, they would accumulate 7,500 units by capitalizing on the depressed NAVs during the downturnUpon selling after six months, this scenario ultimately realizes a profit of 50%.
This depiction of fluctuating fund values is often referred to as a "smile curve." Yet, in the reality of capital markets, the volatility exhibited by fund NAVs rarely reaches the extremes suggested in these examplesThe clear-cut "smile curve" is something encountered infrequently in practiceA drop of over 50% in value, while depicted in this model, runs contrary to what many have experienced in recent years, as the performance of equity funds has often been subpar, with some reporting losses exceeding 30%. Additionally, significant rebounds exceeding 100% within three months are also seldom witnessed in the marketplace.
Consequently, for individuals with surplus funds seeking to invest, striking the perfect "smile" band while engaging in systematic investing could lead to profits
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